The Catalyst for Awakening: $18 Million and an Unexpected Dividend

On January 7, 2026, the announcement many had been waiting for came: Oramed received an $18 million payment from Scilex Holdings, definitively closing the obligations under the Option Agreement. This is not an isolated event, but the final piece of an investment strategy that is proving to be particularly successful. With this payment, the total returns on the initial $99.5 million investment in Scilex reach $118 million , with additional income expected from the convertible notes, the remaining warrants, and a nine-year royalty agreement.

But the biggest surprise for shareholders came from the Board of Directors' decision to distribute a cash dividend of $0.25 per share . For a company in clinical development, this represents a truly unusual and powerful signal. The ex-dividend date is set for January 16, 2026, with payment scheduled for January 26. Overall, this represents a distribution of approximately $10.5 million, which will be funded with excess capital accumulated thanks to strategic investments.

The Transformation from a Biotech Company to a Hybrid Investment Company

What makes Oramed particularly interesting today is its strategic evolution. After the disappointing results of the Phase 3 trials of oral insulin in January 2023, when shares plunged 72% in a single session, management demonstrated remarkable adaptability. Rather than simply seeking new funding to continue research, they decided to build a diversified portfolio of investments in the biomedical and real estate sectors.

The strategy has proven successful. Starting with a cash position of $155.7 million in January 2023, the company invested $17.8 million in research and development and share buybacks, but as of September 30, 2025, it had approximately $210 million in cash and total assets. This substantial increase was achieved thanks to investments in Scilex, Alpha Tau Medical, BioXcel Therapeutics, Pelthos, and various real estate projects.

Alpha Tau Medical: The Bet on Alpha Radiotherapy

Among the most notable investments is Alpha Tau Medical, a company developing a revolutionary cancer treatment technology called Alpha DaRT (Diffusing alpha-emitter Radiation Therapy). In April 2025, Oramed acquired approximately 17% of Alpha Tau's common stock for $36.9 million, also obtaining the right to appoint two members to the board of directors.

The investment proved immediately profitable. As of September 30, 2025, the position was already worth approximately $64.8 million , recording a gain of $27.1 million in just a few months. But it's not just capital appreciation: Oramed has also entered into a services agreement with Alpha Tau, to provide investor relations and public relations consulting, which includes payments of $3 million over three years plus warrants to purchase an additional 3.2 million shares.

Alpha Tau is showing encouraging clinical progress, particularly in pancreatic and head and neck cancers, where preliminary data have demonstrated strong disease control and early signs of extended survival. With FDA approvals for upcoming trials in the United States, the company is in a critical phase of clinical validation.

The Scilex Investment: A Financial Engineering Case Study

The relationship with Scilex Holdings deserves in-depth analysis because it represents an example of how to structure complex investments in the biotech sector. In September 2023, Oramed lent Scilex $99.5 million through a senior secured note with an interest rate of SOFR plus 8.5%, also receiving a series of warrants to purchase Scilex shares at very favorable prices.

The agreement was then renegotiated in October 2024 with the so-called "2024 Refinancing," which saw Oramed invest an additional €25 million in a Tranche B convertible note and acquire the right to receive a 4% royalty on net sales of key products such as ZTLido and SP-103 for ten years. Through a joint venture called RoyaltyVest, Oramed also obtained rights to Gloperba and Elyxyb outside the United States.

The Return of Oral Insulin: A Redesigned Trial with a Higher Chance of Success

Despite its focus on investments, Oramed has not abandoned its original mission. After an in-depth analysis of Phase 2 and 3 data, the team identified subgroups of "high-responders" who showed particularly encouraging results. These are primarily participants with lower BMIs and older ages, who demonstrated the ability to achieve a reduction in HbA1c greater than 1%, a highly clinically significant result.

Armed with this evidence, the company is about to initiate a clinical trial in the United States on 60 patients , designed to be the smallest possible population capable of validating the formulation's efficacy in high-response subgroups. The approach is intelligent: rather than conducting a massive and expensive trial, it focuses on patients most likely to benefit from the treatment, reducing the costs and time required to generate convincing data.

The joint venture with Hefei Tianhui Biotech, which was intended to accelerate development through a $60 million investment, was terminated in October 2025 after HTIT failed to meet the required financial conditions. Oramed subsequently repurchased the shares held by HTIT and will proceed independently, maintaining full control and direction of the program without external dependencies.

Technical Analysis: Market Signals

From a technical standpoint, Oramed is showing encouraging signs. On January 7, 2026, the stock closed at $3.27 , up 6.51% over the session and setting a new 52-week high. Compared to the August 2025 lows of around $2.06, the stock has risen by approximately 59%.

The 14-day RSI stands at 68.35, indicating strong bullish momentum but not yet in overbought territory. The ADX at 30.5 suggests the trend is well-defined, while the MACD generated a bullish signal crossing the signal line on January 7th. The stock is trading above all major moving averages (10, 20, 50, and 200 days), and has even broken above the upper Bollinger Band, a sign of strong buying pressure.

Average daily volume is approximately 197,000 shares, but peaks of over 900,000 shares have been reached on days of greater volatility (such as December 11, 2025), indicating growing investor interest. Short interest is quite low (1.10% of the float), with a days-to-cover of just 1.81 days, suggesting limited downward pressure.

Insiders Believe in the Project

One of the most compelling aspects of investing in Oramed is insider activity. In the 12 months ending December 31, 2025, there were 17 open market purchases by executives and board members, totaling over 2.3 million shares. And most significantly: zero sales .

CEO Nadav Kidron has increased his holdings to over 3.2 million shares through multiple acquisitions, while Chief Scientific Officer Miriam Kidron holds over 1.4 million shares. Joshua Hexter (another key executive) has also accumulated over 1 million shares. This pattern of consistent buying without selling is a very strong signal that management sees significant value in the stock at current price levels.

Risks and Considerations for Investors

Like any biotech investment, Oramed presents significant risks that must be carefully evaluated. The redesigned clinical trial for oral insulin, although more focused, remains an undertaking with an uncertain outcome. If the results fail to confirm expectations for high-response subgroups, the perceived value of the POD technology platform could suffer a significant blow.

In terms of investments, the company's dependence on Scilex is significant. Although the company has demonstrated its ability to meet its financial commitments so far, any operational or market difficulties could jeopardize future note payments or royalties. The convertible note at $36 per share may never be in-the-money if Scilex shares fail to perform.

Real estate investments, while offering diversification, expose the company to the risks of the Israeli real estate market and currency fluctuations (NIS/USD). Furthermore, the liquidity of these assets is limited compared to positions in listed securities.

Valuation and Target Price: What Analysts Say

Analytical coverage of Oramed is limited, with only four analysts regularly covering the stock. The current consensus is a "Hold" rating with an average price target of around $3.00, essentially in line with current prices. However, some analysts have higher targets, as high as $23.37, with more optimistic forecasts for 2026, based on the potential success of the clinical trial and investment appreciation.

The current P/E of approximately 2.7x (based on positive earnings in 2025 thanks to investment gains) is significantly lower than the market average of 19.2x. This discount reflects the non-recurring nature of investment earnings and the uncertainty surrounding the core pharmaceutical business. However, if the clinical trial is successful and Scilex's royalty flows stabilize, the multiple could expand significantly.

Positioning for Different Types of Investors

Short-Term Traders: Technical momentum is strong, with the stock having broken key resistance and showing signs of continuation. The dividend announcement could attract further buying until the ex-dividend date on January 16th. Short-term target: $3.50-4.00, with a stop loss below $2.90 (below the 20-day moving average). Beware of potential profit-taking after the dividend payment.

Medium-Term Investors: The combination of cash flow from investments and the potential catalyst from the clinical trial (results expected in the second half of 2026) offers an attractive risk/return profile. Insider accumulation and reduction of share capital through buybacks support medium-term value. Recommended horizon: 6-18 months. Position appropriately sized considering biotech volatility.

Long-Term Investors: The transformative potential of oral insulin remains intact, but with significant risks. The diversified investment portfolio offers partial protection, but the long-term investment thesis hinges on clinical success. Those who believe in POD technology and tolerate high volatility might consider a core position, but with the understanding that it could take three to five years to see full monetization. The presence of long-term royalties from Scilex provides a defensive value base.

Final Thoughts: A Stock to Keep on Your Radar

Oramed Pharmaceuticals today represents a fascinating case study in how a biotech company can reinvent itself after clinical setbacks. The transformation from a pure-play oral insulin player to a hybrid investment company with a diversified portfolio has created tangible value for shareholders, as demonstrated by the recently announced dividend and the increase in total capital.

The rally since mid-November has not been a fluke: it reflects the market's recognition of the hidden value in the investment portfolio and the anticipation of positive catalysts in 2026. With insiders continuing to buy, constructive technical signals, and a clear strategy on both the investment and clinical fronts, ORMP certainly deserves the attention of investors willing to take calculated risks in the biotech sector.

The $0.25 dividend, representing approximately 8% of the current price, is a welcome bonus but shouldn't be the sole reason to invest. The real investment thesis rests on the convergence of three elements: the potential appreciation of existing investments (particularly Alpha Tau), Scilex's cash flows over the next 12-24 months, and the possibility that the redesigned clinical trial will demonstrate the efficacy of oral insulin in the target subgroups.

In conclusion, after years of neglect, Oramed has returned to the attention of investors. It is no longer just a bet on a single technology, but a diversified vehicle with exposure to multiple growth themes in the biomedical sector. For those who believed in the initial story and had given up hope, this may be the time to reevaluate the stock with fresh eyes. For those approaching it for the first time, it is important to understand both the opportunities and risks of an investment that, by its very nature, will remain volatile and speculative for some time to come.

The final question is: after a 50% gain in two months, has the best time to enter already passed? Not necessarily. If the catalysts materialize as management expects, the potential for further appreciation is there. But as always in the biotech world, it's crucial to correctly size the position relative to your overall portfolio and maintain a clear exit strategy, whether success or failure.