There's a moment during every earnings season when the market holds its breath. That week is coming. From January 26 to 30, 2026, Wall Street prepares to welcome a cascade of financial results that could reshape investors' expectations for the entire year. It's not just about numbers: it's about understanding whether the narrative around artificial intelligence holds up to the test of facts, whether tech giants are truly cashing in on billions of dollars in AI investments, and whether the American economy has the strength to sustain consumer spending and corporate spending at current rates.

I've spent the past few weeks analyzing analyst consensuses, previous guidance, and market signals. What emerges is a fascinating picture, one of high expectations for some stocks and deep skepticism for others. Sixty-seven companies will report their results this week , but the real drama centers on a handful of names that, alone, could determine the direction of the indices for the coming weeks.

The Weekly Calendar: An Overview

Before delving into the analysis of individual stocks, it's essential to understand the schedule. The week begins on Monday, January 26th, with some interesting releases in the financial and industrial sectors, then gradually accelerates to a climax on Wednesday evening, when Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla will unveil their numbers virtually simultaneously in the after-hours session.

Microsoft: The King of AI Under Scrutiny

If there's one stock that embodies the market's expectations (and anxieties) about artificial intelligence, it's Microsoft. Its second-quarter 2026 earnings are expected to be released on Wednesday, January 28th after the close of business, and analysts have set the bar quite high.

Wall Street consensus calls for earnings per share of $3.86 , up 19.5% from $3.23 in the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue is expected to be between $79.5 and $80.6 billion, representing growth of 14-16%. But the true measure of growth will be Azure, the cloud division that analysts expect to expand 37% in constant currency, despite demand continuing to significantly exceed available capacity.

There's an elephant in the room, however: losses related to investments in OpenAI. In the previous quarter, Microsoft recorded approximately $3.1 billion in losses (equivalent to $0.41 per share) resulting from its partnership with Sam Altman's company. The stock fell 2.9% the day after the first quarter was released, despite the numbers being better than expected. Investors appear concerned about how long this phase of massive investment will last before AI begins to contribute positively to margins.

Citi analyst Tyler Radke recently cut his price target from $690 to $660 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing concerns about the valuation of AI stocks. Yet, the consensus remains solidly positive: out of 34 analysts covering the stock, 32 recommend buying. The average price target of $630 implies a potential upside of 31.7% from current levels, a sign that most on Wall Street believe Microsoft's AI strategy will pay off in the long run.

Meta: The Enigma Reality Labs

A few hours after Microsoft, Meta will unveil its fourth quarter 2025 numbers. Mark Zuckerberg arrives at this event with a paradoxical situation: the core advertising business is soaring, fueled by AI, while the Reality Labs division continues to burn billions with losses that have exceeded $70 billion cumulatively since 2021.

Analysts expect EPS of $8.15 , up slightly from $8.02 the previous year. Revenue is expected to reach $58.4 billion, up 20.7% year-over-year. Meta's guidance for Q4 was between $56 billion and $59 billion, so the consensus is at the high end of that range.

The previous quarter left its mark: despite solid operating results with revenues of $51.24 billion (+26% YoY) and normalized EPS of $7.25, the stock plunged 11.3% the following day. The culprit? A combination of factors: CapEx guidance revised upward to $70-72 billion (from $66-72 billion previously), Reality Labs' $4.43 billion loss in the quarter, and a one-time tax charge of $15.93 billion related to new U.S. tax regulations.

Tesla: Musk's Year of Truth

And then there's Tesla. The third big name of Wednesday evening comes into this round with the most controversial expectations of the entire week. After a disappointing third quarter in deliveries and a 2025 marked by unprecedented competitive pressures, analysts are deeply divided on the future of the Austin giant.

The consensus is for EPS of $0.44 , down 39.7% from $0.73 in the same quarter of the previous year. Revenue is expected between $27 billion and $29 billion, a range that highlights analyst uncertainty and compares to $31.3 billion in Q4 2024. Deliveries for the quarter, already announced, totaled 418,227 vehicles, down 15.6% year-over-year and below analysts' expectations.

Europe represents Tesla's biggest challenge. Sales in 2025 fell 27.8% to 235,322 units, according to Electrek, a figure that reflects both intensifying competition and, according to some observers, the impact of Elon Musk's political activities on brand perception. In China, pressure from local manufacturers continues to erode market share despite consolidated local production.

There is, however, a bright spot: the Energy Storage division posted a record quarter with 12.5 GWh deployed (+81% YoY), generating $3.4 billion in revenue with margins significantly higher than the automotive sector. Record free cash flow of approximately $4 billion and a cash position exceeding $41 billion provide financial flexibility for ambitious AI initiatives. The question investors will be asking on Wednesday evening is: does this optionality justify such a steep valuation?

Apple: The Holiday Quarter Under the Scrutiny

On Thursday, January 29, just hours after digesting Wednesday's earnings from major tech companies, the market will have to face Apple. Cupertino's first fiscal quarter of 2026 covers the October-December period, the Christmas quarter that traditionally represents the annual sales peak. That's when the iPhone 17 had its first full quarter on the market, and analysts are cautiously optimistic.

The consensus is calling for EPS of $2.67 , up 11.3% from $2.40 a year earlier. Revenue is expected to be $138.4 billion, also up 11.3%. But what makes this quarter particularly interesting are the underlying dynamics: Goldman Sachs expects iPhone revenue growth of 13% year-over-year, with shipments increasing 5%, fueled by a 26% surge in China, where Apple has regained leadership in the smartphone market.

The fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 (July-September) saw record revenues of $102.5 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations. iPhone sales rose 6% to $49.03 billion, while Services reached $28.75 billion (+15.5% YoY), confirming the increasingly central role of this high-margin division. Tim Cook had announced expectations for a record quarter, and the market now wants to see those promises translated into numbers.

There is, however, one uncertainty: tariffs. In Q4, Apple incurred $1.1 billion in tariff-related costs, with a total of around $2 billion in 2025. For Q1 2026, the company expects an impact of around $1.4 billion. Despite the presidential exceptions, these costs continue to weigh on margins. KeyBanc maintained a Hold rating on the stock, noting that while the short-term outlook appears de-risked after the 9% decline last month, expectations for the second half of the fiscal year appear too high.

Boeing: The Long Road to Profitability

On Tuesday, January 27, before the market opens, Boeing will reveal its fourth-quarter 2025 results. This is a crucial date for a company trying to leave behind turbulent years marked by quality issues, strikes, and program delays. The consensus still calls for a loss, but a much smaller one than in the past.

Analysts expect a loss of $0.37-$0.45 per share , a dramatic improvement from the $5.90 loss in the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue is expected to be $22.25-$22.4 billion, up 46% year-over-year, reflecting the ramp-up in deliveries, which reached 600 aircraft in 2025, the highest annual total since 2018.

Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned called Boeing his "top aerospace pick for 2026," raising his price target to $298 from $277. The thesis is that 737 and 787 production is accelerating, execution is improving, and demand for new aircraft remains strong and well outstrips supply. The backlog of over $600 billion, covering more than 5,900 aircraft, provides revenue visibility for years to come.

ASML: The Semiconductor Barometer

On Wednesday morning, before the market opens, ASML will release its fourth-quarter 2025 results. The Dutch lithography machine giant is considered the definitive barometer of the semiconductor cycle, and this quarterly report comes at a particularly significant time: Taiwan Semiconductor just announced a $54 billion investment plan for 2026, up 32% year-over-year.

But the real focus will be on guidance for 2026 and 2027. ASML has already indicated that 2026 revenues will not fall below those of 2025, but analysts want details on the ongoing transition: while demand for EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) machines is expected to grow, sales in China are set to decline significantly due to export restrictions, and this could create volatility in quarterly numbers.

TSMC's announcement of $54 billion in investments for 2026 has been seen as a massive vote of confidence in ASML's lithography technology. With the race for 2nm and 1.4nm chips accelerating, demand for High-NA EUV machines is expected to explode in the coming years. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Bernstein expect record orders in the €8-9 billion range in Q4 2025, driven by the urgent need for AI production capacity.

Digital Payments: Visa, Mastercard, and American Express

The week also offers an interesting window into the digital payments sector, with three major companies releasing their results within hours of each other: Mastercard and Visa on Thursday, and American Express on Friday.

All three stocks are expected to show solid growth, supported by the resilience of American consumption and the ongoing shift toward digital payments. Visa and Mastercard are also benefiting from the recovery in international travel, which is driving cross-border volumes, while American Express is reaping the benefits of its Platinum card refresh, which doubled new customer acquisitions in the first few weeks since its launch.

There is, however, an element of political uncertainty: President Trump's proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates has caused both stocks to lose more than 4% since January 12. While this measure seems unlikely in its most extreme form, it serves as a reminder that the sector remains exposed to regulatory risks.

UnitedHealth: The Resilience Test

Among the most closely watched stocks on Tuesday is UnitedHealth, the health insurance giant entering this event after a very difficult year. The stock has lost more than 34% in the past 12 months, hit by a mix of company-specific and industry-specific factors: a Department of Justice investigation into alleged irregularities in Medicare Advantage billing, margin pressures due to rising medical costs, and the assassination of insurance division CEO Brian Thompson, which has profoundly shaken the company.

The consensus forecast is for EPS of $2.09 , down 69.3% from $6.81 in the same quarter a year earlier. The main cause is the surge in the Medical Care Ratio, which measures how much of premiums are absorbed by medical costs: expected at 92.2% compared to 85.5% a year earlier, leaving margins much more compressed.

Yet, there are signs of optimism. Bernstein analyst Lance Wilkes named UnitedHealth his "Top Pick for 2026," citing a gradual recovery in the Medicare Advantage and Medicaid segments thanks to improved pricing and normalizing utilization trends. Berkshire Hathaway recently disclosed a $1.57 billion investment in the stock, acquiring over 5 million shares, while former CEO Stephen Hemsley, who returned to the helm in May 2025, personally purchased over $25 million in shares.

2026 guidance will be the real catalyst. If management can communicate a credible path to margin stabilization, the stock could finally find a floor. Analysts' average price target of $394.91 implies a 19% upside, but the exceptionally wide range ($280 to $440) reflects deeply divided opinions on risk.

Caterpillar: The Thermometer of the Real Economy

On Thursday morning, before the opening, Caterpillar will offer a privileged window into the real global economy. The construction and mining equipment manufacturer reported a record 2025, with quarterly revenues in Q3 reaching an all-time high of $17.6 billion and a backlog that rose to $39.9 billion.

The consensus forecast is for EPS of $4.52-$4.66 , down about 12% from $5.14 a year earlier, reflecting the impact of tariffs and normalization after years of explosive growth. But analysts are already looking ahead to 2026, when EPS is expected to rebound by about 19% to $21.99.

Caterpillar is benefiting from several structural trends: infrastructure investments under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the energy transition fueling demand for critical minerals (and therefore mining equipment), and, most importantly, the explosion of AI data centers. The company recently entered into a strategic partnership with Hunt Energy to provide up to one gigawatt of power generation capacity to data centers, a rapidly expanding business.

Potential Surprises: Stocks to Watch

Beyond the big names, several stocks could provide interesting surprises. SoFi Technologies is going public on Friday morning after a pivotal 2025 that saw it reach sustainable profitability. The consensus forecast is EPS of $0.11-$0.12, in line with the previous quarter, but the real focus will be on deposit growth and credit quality in a still-high interest rate environment.

ServiceNow (NOW) , which is trading after-hours Wednesday alongside the big tech companies, could be the most interesting SaaS stock of the week. Demand for enterprise AI automation solutions is booming, and analysts are watching subscription growth and management commentary on the sales cycle.

IBM , also on Wednesday evening, offered a different perspective on enterprise AI. After restructuring in recent years, Big Blue is trying to position itself as a partner of choice for companies looking to implement AI into their processes. The results of Red Hat and its hybrid cloud business will be particularly scrutinized.

How to Position Yourself: Final Considerations

This week represents a moment of truth for several narratives that have dominated markets over the past year. Is artificial intelligence really the game-changer that justifies the sky-high valuations of tech stocks? Are American consumers maintaining the spending power that has propelled the economy? Can corporate margins hold up in a persistently high cost environment?

For Italian investors following US markets, this week offers opportunities but also significant risks. The concentration of important releases on a single Wednesday evening creates the potential for violent movements after the US close, which could impact the European open on Thursday. Overnight futures will be particularly lively.

My advice is to avoid getting carried away by emotion. Quarterly numbers are important, but the market's reaction depends as much on expectations as on actual results. A company can beat estimates and see its stock price decline if guidance disappoints, while another can miss expectations but rebound if management offers a convincing vision for the future.

What really matters is understanding the medium-term trajectory. And this week, more than many others, will provide us with valuable insights to do so.